Conway, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

533
FXUS62 KILM 060001
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
701 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue through Saturday with front
stalled offshore. Low rain chances return Sunday night through
early Monday, followed by dry, cool high pressure. Rain chances
may return for the latter half of next week ahead of another
front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Surface low pressure is about 258 miles ENE of Cape Fear,
accompanied by the offshore front. Bulk of the rain is located
closer to these features, but plenty of light rain or drizzle
still remains draped along the coastal counties. This is
expected to continue through much of the night. The near term
forecast issued earlier this afternoon is still valid below.

Elsewhere, updated 00Z TAF discussion found further below in the
Aviation section.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure is moving along a front stalled 30-50 miles off
the Carolina coast. This low should be located east of Cape
Hatteras by this evening. A broad zone of deep isentropic lift
extends northeastward from where the southern extent of this
same front is stalled along the Gulf Coast. Overrunning tropical
moisture is supporting widespread rain with embedded heavier
showers generated in elevated convection from 100-200 J/kg of
CAPE when a layer between 800-700 mb is lifted.

Models show the layer currently experiencing the best
isentropic lift (850-700 mb) should dry out this evening which
should lead to an erosion of rainfall, especially along and
north of a line from Florence to Whiteville to Wilmington.
Moisture below 850 mb will remain thick and it`s likely we`ll
maintain overcast skies with periods of light rain or drizzle
with fog through the night. Forecast lows range from around 40
inland to the lower 40s on the coast, only 4-5 degrees lower
than early afternoon temps.

The mid levels of the atmosphere should moisten back up during
the day Saturday as a shortwave streaking east across Tennessee
and the southern Appalachians starts to back 850-700 mb wind
directions more southerly, allowing Gulf moisture to return.
Although there shouldn`t be any period with completely dry
weather Saturday, relatively low rain chances during the morning
will surge to 60-80 percent from Cape Fear southward during the
afternoon. Lumberton and Bennettsville may remain north of the
zone of best moisture return and PoPs here are only shown at
30-40 percent during the afternoon. Temperatures should again
remain chilly with highs only anticipated to approach 50
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Quite a bit of dry mid level air will be moving in from the
west early Saturday night, bringing an end to rain chances, with
only lingering low pops along the coast late Saturday evening.
Moisture remains at the surface, keeping low clouds and/or fog
around through Sunday morning. Low temps Sunday morning in the
low to mid 30s to the north and upper 30s to the south. Below
normal temps continue Sunday, though warmer than previous days
with highs in the mid 50s. Could end up slightly cooler if low
clouds linger into the day. Light rain chances return Sunday
night ahead of the next shortwave with a weak surface wave
moving up the coast, but moisture is shallow and lift isn`t
particularly strong. Low temps in the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chance of light rain early Monday with passage of 500mb
shortwave while a surface low moves across the western Atlantic
well offshore. Wedge of high pressure briefly builds down from
the north during the day Monday, combining with mostly cloudy
skies to bring well below normal highs in the upper 40s-50F
Monday afternoon. Dry high pressure persists through mid-week
with continued cool temps, with lows in the 20s both Monday and
Tuesday nights. Could see apparent temps in the teens Tuesday
morning. Forecast becomes much more uncertain for late next
week. Guidance has varied strength and timing of the next upper
shortwave and frontal passage. Ensembles are showing a warming
trend heading into the end of next week, but not much of a
signal for any significant impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread IFR ceilings will continue through tonight and much
of Saturday. Visibility is actually P6SM for most at the moment,
but rain and fog has had a history of reducing visibility to
3-5 SM, even 1-2 SM during periods of heavier rain. Cloud bases
in the 400-600 ft range could lower to 300 ft at times tonight.
This is all due to a storm system moving northeastward just off
the Carolina coastline.

Rainfall may wane in intensity after 06Z tonight, but a renewed
push of rain is expected to begin overspreading the area from
the southwest Saturday morning after daybreak. This should
maintain low ceilings and IFR conditions through at least 18Z
Saturday. Some terminals, particularly inland, may dry out a bit
towards the end of the period, and may even improve to MVFR
ceilings at times, but confidence on that idea is rather shaky.

Extended Outlook...Any improvements should be short-lived as
IFR conditions should reestablish themselves across the entire
area Saturday night through Sunday morning. Ceilings may scatter
out some Sunday afternoon, however MVFR conditions cannot be
ruled out. Another wave of low pressure moving along the coast
could bring renewed MVFR/IFR ceilings Sunday night into Monday.
VFR should return late Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Low pressure is moving northeastward along a
front stalled 30-60 miles off the Carolina coastline. Wind
directions at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy have varied greatly
today as the front oscillates across the buoy location. Within
the coastal waters winds have remained solidly northeasterly
today at 10-15 knots.

Look for wind directions to back northerly this evening and
northwesterly overnight as the low passes by our latitude. Rain
and areas of fog will reduce visibility to 1-3 miles. By
Saturday afternoon winds should turn westerly with speeds
remaining generally 10 knots or less.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Offshore winds early
Saturday night turn northerly by Sunday morning with front now
well offshore and high pressure inland. Seas around 2 ft
Saturday night through Sunday night, combination of E swell and
wind chop. Northerly winds and seas strengthen on Monday as
pressure gradient tightens between high pressure wedge inland
and low off to the east. 20-25 kts N winds forecasted for late
Monday afternoon into Monday night with seas 4-5 ft, with
potential for 6 footers in outer coastal waters as NE swell
builds. Winds and seas improve early Tuesday as high pressure
inland breaks down. Trough offshore will bring SW winds to the
waters Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...TRA/VAO